On 30 September 2026 SOFR printed level with IORB, the Standing Repo Facility lent $1.2 billion and ON RRP took in $11.5 billion. A year earlier the spread was 9 bp; at the 2025 year-end it was 22 bp, with $74.6 billion at the SRF. Five quarter-ends side by side, every figure dated.
The 30 September 2026 quarter-end passed without visible funding stress. SOFR printed level with IORB, a SOFR-IORB spread of 0 bp. The Standing Repo Facility (SRF) lent $1.2 billion across the day's operations. ON RRP took in $11.5 billion, up from $851 million on 28 September, and fell back to $350 million on 1 October. That day the spread was −3 bp and the SRF lent nothing.
The TGA rose $47.4 billion on 30 September to a closing balance of $984.0 billion, then fell $90.3 billion on 1 October to $893.7 billion. That up-then-down shape is not specific to this turn. The account moved the same way around each of the last five quarter-ends, so on its own it says little about stress. Fed swap lines stood at $207 million on Wednesday 30 September, against $481 million at the 2025 year-end.
Sources and units: the spread is the New York Fed's SOFR, a volume-weighted median, minus IORB, in basis points. SRF is the sum of the day's accepted standing repo operations. ON RRP is the Fed's overnight reverse repo take-up. The TGA figure is the closing balance in the Daily Treasury Statement. All figures are the values this site's indicator pages published on 9 October 2026.
30 September 2025: SOFR-IORB 9 bp, SRF $6.0 billion, ON RRP $49.1 billion. The TGA rose $85.2 billion that day and fell $71.4 billion the next.
31 December 2025: 22 bp, and $74.6 billion at the SRF, the largest single day in the series since the facility was set up in July 2021. ON RRP took in $106.0 billion. TGA +$46.4 billion, then −$91.6 billion on 2 January.
31 March 2026: 3 bp, about $1 million at the SRF, $15.8 billion at ON RRP. TGA +$24.5 billion, then −$89.4 billion.
30 June 2026: 3 bp, nothing at the SRF, $26.9 billion at ON RRP. TGA +$42.2 billion, then −$111.8 billion.
30 September 2026: 0 bp, $1.2 billion at the SRF, $11.5 billion at ON RRP. TGA +$47.4 billion, then −$90.3 billion. Of the five, it had the lowest spread and the smallest ON RRP balance. The SRF lent a little more than in March or June, when it lent close to nothing.
Why look at quarter-ends at all? The standard explanation is balance-sheet reporting. Many banks, foreign banks in particular, report balance sheets as of the quarter-end date and intermediate less repo over it. Money funds that cannot place cash with dealers leave it at ON RRP, and borrowers who cannot find cash pay more for it or go to the SRF. That is the reason to check these numbers on these dates; the figures above do not test it.
The two largest SRF days of the past twelve months were late-2025 month-ends. On 31 October 2025 the facility lent $50.35 billion and SOFR-IORB printed 32 bp, the widest reading of the past year. On 28 November it lent $24.4 billion at 22 bp, then $26.0 billion more on 1 December. On 31 December it lent $74.6 billion, then $22.8 billion on 2 January.
Since that year-end, no month-end has come close. Counting the last business day of each month and the first business day of the next, the largest SRF day around a 2026 month-end was 2 March, at $9.0 billion; 30 September's $1.2 billion comes next. Outside the year-end turn, the biggest 2026 draws fell mid-month: $30.5 billion on 17 February, the day the February refunding auctions (3-, 10- and 30-year) settled, and $10.5 billion on 15 April, a tax date on which the TGA rose $144.9 billion.
The two Septembers read very differently. On the 15 September 2025 tax date the TGA rose $149.9 billion, SOFR-IORB printed 11 bp and the SRF lent $1.5 billion. On 15 September 2026 the TGA rose $120.3 billion, the spread was −1 bp and the SRF lent $102 million. At the quarter-end it was 9 bp and $6.0 billion in 2025, against 0 bp and $1.2 billion in 2026.
The amount of cash in the system does not explain the gap: bank reserves averaged $2.966 trillion in the week to 1 October 2025 and $2.948 trillion in the week to 30 September 2026. The reserve buffer, reserves plus ON RRP as a share of commercial-bank assets, was thinner this time: 11.41% against 12.14%. It was also below the 11.73% of the week to 29 October 2025, when SOFR-IORB printed between 9 and 16 bp. The data on this site does not show what changed in between. It does rule out the simplest reading, that there were more reserves this year.
These series are coincident. A 0 bp spread on 30 September describes 30 September; it is not a forecast for the year-end turn, which is the one that drew $74.6 billion last time. The DLI is built the same way. Its headline read 60 out of 100, neutral, on 30 September 2026. Its funding-stress leg, which reads SOFR-IORB, SRF usage and the swap lines, stood at 0.01 on a 0-to-1 scale, against 0.14 on 30 September 2025 and 0.49 on 31 December 2025.
For the next turn the checklist is the same: the spread, SRF usage, ON RRP on the day and the day after, and whether the TGA moves more than its usual quarter-end swing. Over the last five quarter-ends that swing ran from $24.5 billion to $85.2 billion into the account on the last day, and from $71.4 billion to $111.8 billion out of it on the next business day.
Not in the published data. On 30 September 2026 SOFR-IORB was 0 bp, the Standing Repo Facility lent $1.2 billion and ON RRP held $11.5 billion. At the 2025 year-end the same three readings were 22 bp, $74.6 billion and $106.0 billion.
$1.2 billion, the sum of the day's accepted operations. The largest day in the series since the facility was set up in 2021 is 31 December 2025, at $74.6 billion. Since that year-end, the largest SRF day around a month-end was 2 March 2026, at $9.0 billion.
The standard explanation is that many banks report balance sheets as of the quarter-end date and intermediate less repo over it, so money funds leave more cash at the Fed overnight. This time ON RRP went from $851 million on 28 September to $11.4 billion on the 29th and $11.5 billion on the 30th, then $350 million on 1 October.
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