10Y Term Premium reads 0.87% as of 2026-08-21. Change from prior reading: +0.02. Current value sits at the 100th percentile of the trailing 5 years. Sourced from fred, refreshed every 6 hours, and free to access via the JSON API.
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Integrated Brief
THREEFYTP10 — the term premium on a 10-year zero-coupon Treasury, estimated with the Kim-Wright (2005) three-factor arbitrage-free term structure model and published by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. This is a MODEL estimate, not an observed market yield: it splits the 10-year Treasury yield into the market's expected path of future short-term rates plus this residual, the extra compensation investors demand for holding duration risk. It is not the New York Fed's separate ACM term-premium estimate, which uses a different model and is not carried on FRED. Daily, back to 1990-01-02, not seasonally adjusted, and the latest print typically lags 2-5 business days.
Core Print
Current Interpretation
10Y Term Premium is currently 0.87 (daily change +0.02). Based on its standardized history position (z-score), the current read is "Tightening bias". Check related indicators to confirm whether this is isolated noise or a broader liquidity shift.
Score contribution is currently unavailable for this indicator.
10Y Term Premium is a core liquidity signal used to track funding conditions and risk appetite in US dollar markets.
This indicator shifts available liquidity and risk premium, which can move valuations in equities, crypto, and credit.
Use the related indicators and the Liquidity Score direction together to avoid overreacting to a single data point.
Read our complete guide on 10Y Term Premium, including historical examples, interpretation methods, and common pitfalls.