Indicator Terminal View
Integrated Brief
As of 2026-10-09, the 10-Year Treasury Term Premium (Kim-Wright) stood at 1.07%, unchanged from the prior reading, at the 100th percentile of the past 5 years. The term premium on a 10-year zero-coupon Treasury, estimated with the Kim-Wright (2005) three-factor arbitrage-free term structure model and published by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. This is a MODEL estimate, not an observed market yield: it splits the 10-year Treasury yield into the market's expected path of future short-term rates plus this residual, the extra compensation investors demand for holding duration risk. It is not the New York Fed's separate ACM term-premium estimate, which uses a different model and is not carried on FRED. Daily, back to 1990-01-02, not seasonally adjusted, and the latest print typically lags 2-5 business days.
Core Print
Current Interpretation
10Y Term Premium read 1.07% on 2026-10-09 (0.00 pp vs prior reading). Based on its standardized historical distribution (z-score), current positioning reflects a "tightening bias". Check related plumbing indicators to evaluate broader systemic conditions.
Source: FRED · THREEFYTP10. Refreshed every 6 hours and free to access via the JSON API.
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10Y Term Premium is shown for context and does not enter the DLI score.
Read the full guide to 10Y Term Premium: what it measures, how to read it, and the common mistakes.