Analysis & Insights
In-depth analysis of dollar liquidity indicators, market dynamics, and investment frameworks. Data-driven, updated regularly.
A practical daily routine for crypto investors who want to stay macro-aware without becoming macro-obsessed. Seven indicators that capture the full liquidity picture, when each one matters most, and how to read them in under 10 minutes a day.
Most retail investors hold a few cached beliefs about Fed policy that don't survive contact with the data. Here are four of the biggest, with what the historical record actually shows for each.
Bitcoin and the S&P 500 both respond to Fed liquidity, but with different timing, magnitude, and recovery profiles. Here's the four-phase liquidity cycle, the historical data on each asset across 2018-2026, and which one is the better play in each phase.
Bitcoin's correlation with Fed liquidity is one of the strongest macro relationships in modern markets. Here's the mechanism in plain language, the historical pattern from 2018, 2020, 2022, and the single indicator that has flipped first ahead of every BTC bottom.
By the time CNBC says "Fed pivot," the move is already priced in. Here are five plumbing-level liquidity signals that historically lead the announcement by 4-12 weeks — and where to find each on DollarLiquidity.com.
A comprehensive analysis of M2 money supply — what it measures, its historic contraction in 2022-2023, recovery trajectory through 2025-2026, and why it remains the broadest barometer of dollar liquidity for risk asset investors.
Everything you need to know about the Treasury General Account — how it works, why TGA drawdowns inject liquidity, how rebuilds drain it, historical swings during debt ceiling crises, and how to use TGA data for investment decisions.
Why a rate hike is not the same thing as quantitative tightening, even though both look like "the Fed getting tighter". A practical guide to the difference for stock and crypto investors, with the 2022 case study and what it means in 2026.
A deep dive into the Fed's ON RRP facility — how it works, why it surged to $2.5 trillion, how its drainage to near-zero fueled the rally, and what its depletion means for 2026 markets.
Updated analysis of the Net Liquidity formula — its R² of 0.91 with SPX, component breakdown for 2026, what changed with ONRRP depletion, and a practical positioning playbook.
Understanding M2 velocity (GDP/M2) — why it collapsed post-2008 and post-COVID, how high M2 with low velocity creates trapped liquidity, recovery signals, and implications for 2026.
A step-by-step guide to reading the Federal Reserve balance sheet (WALCL) — what its components are, what expansion and contraction mean for markets, and how to use it as an investment signal.
A data-driven comparison of the two dominant BTC price narratives — the halving supply shock vs the dollar liquidity cycle — showing why liquidity has been the stronger predictor and how halvings happen to coincide with liquidity expansions.
A guide to the SOFR rate — the backbone of US dollar short-term funding — how it replaced LIBOR, why SOFR spikes signal liquidity stress, and how to interpret it alongside Fed policy and repo market dynamics.
A comprehensive guide to the net liquidity formula used by macro analysts worldwide — how it works, why each component matters, and how it has predicted every major market turning point since 2020.
A plain-language guide to Quantitative Tightening — how the Federal Reserve shrinks its balance sheet, the mechanics of QT, its historical track record (2017-2019 and 2022-present), and how investors can track its market impact in real time.
A forensic reconstruction of the March 2020 crash and the unprecedented $3 trillion Fed response, showing exactly how liquidity metrics signaled the bottom and the start of the greatest bull run in modern history.
Explore the statistical relationship between VIX volatility spikes and cryptocurrency drawdowns, with threshold analysis and practical risk management frameworks.
An in-depth analysis of the statistical relationship between Federal Reserve total assets (WALCL) and Bitcoin price movements from 2021 to 2026, with actionable insights for macro-informed positioning.
A timeline analysis of the 2022 crypto meltdown through the lens of dollar liquidity — from the Terra/LUNA death spiral in May to the FTX fraud in November — showing how macro conditions set the stage for every blow-up.
A head-to-head comparison of the Treasury General Account and Overnight Reverse Repo as liquidity signals, with historical accuracy data and practical interpretation tips.
A cross-cycle comparison of the three major US debt ceiling episodes, revealing a repeatable TGA pattern: drawdown → liquidity injection → risk rally → resolution → rebuild → liquidity drain.
A step-by-step guide for retail investors on how to interpret dollar liquidity indicators, understand score signals, and integrate them into your investment workflow.
A detailed breakdown of the August 5, 2024 global market crash triggered by the Bank of Japan rate hike and yen carry trade unwind — the day VIX spiked to 65 and BTC dropped 18% in hours.
How the quiet drainage of $2 trillion from the Fed's reverse repo facility fueled the rally most investors didn't see coming — and why this one-time liquidity source is now nearly exhausted.
An analysis of how the fastest real yield surge in 40 years — from -1.0% to +2.5% — drove the 2022 bear market in both tech stocks and crypto, and why real yield is the hidden variable most traders ignore.