Analysis & Insights
In-depth analysis of dollar liquidity indicators, market dynamics, and investment frameworks. Data-driven, updated regularly.
A step-by-step guide to reading the Federal Reserve balance sheet (WALCL) — what its components are, what expansion and contraction mean for markets, and how to use it as an investment signal.
A data-driven comparison of the two dominant BTC price narratives — the halving supply shock vs the dollar liquidity cycle — showing why liquidity has been the stronger predictor and how halvings happen to coincide with liquidity expansions.
A guide to the SOFR rate — the backbone of US dollar short-term funding — how it replaced LIBOR, why SOFR spikes signal liquidity stress, and how to interpret it alongside Fed policy and repo market dynamics.
A comprehensive guide to the net liquidity formula used by macro analysts worldwide — how it works, why each component matters, and how it has predicted every major market turning point since 2020.
A plain-language guide to Quantitative Tightening — how the Federal Reserve shrinks its balance sheet, the mechanics of QT, its historical track record (2017-2019 and 2022-present), and how investors can track its market impact in real time.
A forensic reconstruction of the March 2020 crash and the unprecedented $3 trillion Fed response, showing exactly how liquidity metrics signaled the bottom and the start of the greatest bull run in modern history.
Explore the statistical relationship between VIX volatility spikes and cryptocurrency drawdowns, with threshold analysis and practical risk management frameworks.
An in-depth analysis of the statistical relationship between Federal Reserve total assets (WALCL) and Bitcoin price movements from 2021 to 2026, with actionable insights for macro-informed positioning.
A timeline analysis of the 2022 crypto meltdown through the lens of dollar liquidity — from the Terra/LUNA death spiral in May to the FTX fraud in November — showing how macro conditions set the stage for every blow-up.
A head-to-head comparison of the Treasury General Account and Overnight Reverse Repo as liquidity signals, with historical accuracy data and practical interpretation tips.
A cross-cycle comparison of the three major US debt ceiling episodes, revealing a repeatable TGA pattern: drawdown → liquidity injection → risk rally → resolution → rebuild → liquidity drain.
A step-by-step guide for retail investors on how to interpret dollar liquidity indicators, understand score signals, and integrate them into your investment workflow.
A detailed breakdown of the August 5, 2024 global market crash triggered by the Bank of Japan rate hike and yen carry trade unwind — the day VIX spiked to 65 and BTC dropped 18% in hours.
How the quiet drainage of $2 trillion from the Fed's reverse repo facility fueled the rally most investors didn't see coming — and why this one-time liquidity source is now nearly exhausted.
An analysis of how the fastest real yield surge in 40 years — from -1.0% to +2.5% — drove the 2022 bear market in both tech stocks and crypto, and why real yield is the hidden variable most traders ignore.