Category
Long-form case studies of specific liquidity episodes — 2020, 2022, the debt-ceiling standoffs, the ON RRP drain — reconstructed from the indicator record rather than from memory.
The full methodology behind the June 2026 rebuild: the net-liquidity spine, the anchor-free flow estimator, the noisy-OR funding override, and why the headline became an absolute 0-100 reading instead of a rolling percentile.
The reserve-demand curve is convex, so a drain into a thin cash cushion is not the same event as a drain into an ample one. How DLI 2.0 prices that asymmetry without falling into the reserve-level trap that a percentile weight fell into.
Bitcoin's correlation with Fed liquidity is one of the strongest macro relationships in modern markets. Here's the mechanism in plain language, the historical pattern from 2018, 2020, 2022, and the single indicator that has flipped first ahead of every BTC bottom.
A comprehensive analysis of M2 money supply — what it measures, its historic contraction in 2022-2023, recovery trajectory through 2025-2026, and why it remains the broadest barometer of dollar liquidity for risk asset investors.
A deep dive into the Fed's ON RRP facility — how it works, why it surged to $2.5 trillion, how its drainage to near-zero fueled the rally, and what its depletion means for 2026 markets.
Updated analysis of the Net Liquidity formula — its R² of 0.91 with SPX, component breakdown for 2026, what changed with ONRRP depletion, and a practical positioning playbook.
A forensic reconstruction of the March 2020 crash and the unprecedented $3 trillion Fed response, showing exactly how liquidity metrics signaled the bottom and the start of the greatest bull run in modern history.
Explore the statistical relationship between VIX volatility spikes and cryptocurrency drawdowns, with threshold analysis and practical risk management frameworks.
An in-depth analysis of the statistical relationship between Federal Reserve total assets (WALCL) and Bitcoin price movements from 2021 to 2026, with actionable insights for macro-informed positioning.
A timeline analysis of the 2022 crypto meltdown through the lens of dollar liquidity — from the Terra/LUNA death spiral in May to the FTX fraud in November — showing how macro conditions set the stage for every blow-up.
A cross-cycle comparison of the three major US debt ceiling episodes, revealing a repeatable TGA pattern: drawdown → liquidity injection → risk rally → resolution → rebuild → liquidity drain.
A detailed breakdown of the August 5, 2024 global market crash triggered by the Bank of Japan rate hike and yen carry trade unwind — the day VIX spiked to 65 and BTC dropped 18% in hours.
How the quiet drainage of $2 trillion from the Fed's reverse repo facility fueled the rally most investors didn't see coming — and why this one-time liquidity source is now nearly exhausted.
An analysis of how the fastest real yield surge in 40 years — from -1.0% to +2.5% — drove the 2022 bear market in both tech stocks and crypto, and why real yield is the hidden variable most traders ignore.