The 2-year Treasury yield mostly reflects where markets expect the Fed's policy rate over the next two years; the 10-year adds a decade of expected rates, inflation and a term premium for holding longer debt. The 10y−2y spread between them is the most quoted measure of the yield curve's slope, and below zero the curve is inverted. On 2026-10-13, the 2-year yielded 4.79% and the 10-year 5.21%, a 10y−2y spread of +0.42 pp.
| 2-year Treasury yield | 10-year Treasury yield | |
|---|---|---|
| What it measures | Yield on the 2-year Treasury note (constant maturity). | Yield on the 10-year Treasury note (constant maturity). |
| What moves it | Expected Fed policy over the next two years: FOMC decisions and guidance, inflation and jobs data. | Expected policy rates over ten years plus a term premium: inflation expectations, growth, Treasury supply and global demand. |
| Frequency | Daily (business days) | Daily (business days) |
| Unit | Percent | Percent |
| Latest value | 4.79% (2026-10-13) | 5.21% (2026-10-13) |
| Change over 1 year | +1.27 pp | +1.16 pp |
| Role in the DLI | Not an input (shown for context) | Not an input (shown for context) |
| Source | FRED · DGS2 | FRED · DGS10 |
10y−2y spread +0.42 pp (2026-10-13) · Change over 1 year: -0.11 pp
Computed on this page from the two series, for display only.
Both lines share one axis and unit.
Fed news moves the 2-year most, because it sits close to the policy rate the Fed is expected to set. The 10-year moves less on a single decision and more on inflation expectations, growth, Treasury supply and the term premium.
So the slope changes with the cycle. The curve usually flattens or inverts as the Fed raises rates and the 2-year climbs above the 10-year, and steepens when markets expect cuts and the 2-year falls faster.
The 2022 hikes are the clearest case: the 2-year rose faster than the 10-year, the curve inverted in 2022 and stayed below zero for about two years.
The long end can also move on its own. A rise in the term premium or heavy Treasury issuance can push the 10-year up while the 2-year, anchored by the expected policy path, barely moves.
The 10y−2y spread was +0.42 pp on 2026-10-13; it was last below zero on 2024-09-05.