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Head-to-head indicator comparisons — TGA against ON RRP, halving against liquidity, rate hikes against QT — settled with data rather than with narrative.
Bitcoin and the S&P 500 both respond to Fed liquidity, but with different timing, magnitude, and recovery profiles. Here's the four-phase liquidity cycle, the historical data on each asset across 2018-2026, and which one is the better play in each phase.
A data-driven comparison of the two dominant BTC price narratives — the halving supply shock vs the dollar liquidity cycle — showing why liquidity has been the stronger predictor and how halvings happen to coincide with liquidity expansions.
A head-to-head comparison of the Treasury General Account and Overnight Reverse Repo as liquidity signals, with historical accuracy data and practical interpretation tips.