A head-to-head comparison of the Treasury General Account and Overnight Reverse Repo as liquidity signals, with historical accuracy data and practical interpretation tips.
The Treasury General Account (TGA) and the Overnight Reverse Repo (ONRRP) are both critical components of US dollar liquidity, but they operate through different mechanisms and often move on different timelines. Understanding when each signal is more informative can meaningfully improve your liquidity read.
The TGA represents the US Treasury's cash balance at the Fed. When the Treasury spends down its account (TGA falls), cash flows into the private sector, boosting system liquidity. When the Treasury rebuilds the TGA (through bond issuance or tax receipts), it drains liquidity from markets.
ONRRP, on the other hand, is a money-market facility where institutions park excess cash at the Fed overnight. A high ONRRP balance means abundant liquidity is sitting idle; as ONRRP drains, that cash moves into more productive (and risk-sensitive) channels like Treasury bills, repo, and ultimately risk assets.
From 2021 to 2025, we tracked the 20-day forward return of the S&P 500 conditional on the direction of each indicator. When TGA was falling (drawdown mode), SPX averaged +1.8% over 20 days with a 64% win rate. When TGA was rising (rebuild mode), SPX averaged +0.3% with a 51% win rate.
For ONRRP, the results were somewhat different. When ONRRP was falling (liquidity release), SPX averaged +1.4% over 20 days with a 61% win rate. When ONRRP was rising (liquidity absorption), SPX averaged +0.6% with a 54% win rate.
Taken individually, TGA drawdowns have been slightly more predictive of positive equity returns. However, the combination of both signals falling simultaneously produced the strongest result: SPX averaged +2.3% over 20 days with a 71% win rate.
TGA tends to be more important around fiscal deadlines: debt ceiling negotiations, large quarterly tax receipt dates (April, June, September), and major Treasury refunding announcements. During these periods, TGA moves can be large and abrupt, creating clear liquidity shocks.
ONRRP is more informative during monetary policy transition periods. When the Fed adjusts the ONRRP rate, or when money market fund yields shift relative to T-bill rates, ONRRP flows can signal broader shifts in how the financial system is allocating excess reserves.
In mid-2023, for example, the TGA was relatively stable while ONRRP fell from $2.2 trillion to $700 billion over six months. This ONRRP drainage was a primary driver of the equity rally that took SPX from 4,100 to 4,800. Tracking only TGA would have missed the signal.
In the current DollarLiquidity model, the DLI headline spine is the net-liquidity flow (Fed balance sheet - TGA - ONRRP), read as a smoothed 6-month flow, plus a funding-stress override. The four tiers still carry weights in the breakdown view on the methodology page, but the headline is not a weighted average of them. TGA enters the flow with a direct higher-worse sign because Treasury cash rebuilds drain reserves from the private system.
ONRRP enters as one term of that net-liquidity flow: a falling balance releases liquidity while a rising balance absorbs it. Once ONRRP is already near zero and stable, it has little room left to move the flow, so it stops dominating the DLI.
Do not pick one over the other. Monitor both daily on DollarLiquidity.com and pay attention to when they confirm each other. The strongest signal now comes from TGA and ONRRP draining while the Fed balance sheet holds or expands — all three pushing the combined net-liquidity flow toward easing; once ONRRP is low and stable, the remaining flow impulse comes mostly from TGA and the balance sheet.
Use the indicator detail pages to check z-scores and percentiles for both. If both are above the 70th percentile (historically high), liquidity is tight. If both are below the 30th percentile, conditions are loose. Divergence between the two creates a neutral signal that requires patience.
Neither on its own. They are two withdrawal points on the same balance sheet, and what matters is the combined flow into or out of bank reserves. A TGA build that is funded out of ON RRP barely touches reserves; the same build funded out of bank deposits hits them fully. Reading either series alone is how identical headline numbers get opposite interpretations.
Because money funds choose between them. When the Treasury issues bills at a yield above the ON RRP rate, cash leaves the facility to buy those bills, and the proceeds land in the TGA. That is one pool emptying into another with reserves largely untouched — which is exactly why the pair has to be read together rather than ranked against each other.
Yes, materially. The facility was the buffer that absorbed Treasury cash building for two years; with it empty, a TGA build has nowhere to draw from except bank reserves. The same swing in the TGA therefore transmits harder now than it did in 2023, which is why the pace of the build matters more than the level it reaches.
Comparison
A data-driven comparison of the two dominant BTC price narratives — the halving supply shock vs the dollar liquidity cycle — showing why liquidity has been the stronger predictor and how halvings happen to coincide with liquidity expansions.
Deep Dive
The full methodology behind the June 2026 rebuild: the net-liquidity spine, the anchor-free flow estimator, the noisy-OR funding override, and why the headline became an absolute 0-100 reading instead of a rolling percentile.
Education
What bank reserves are, why there is no fixed dollar threshold for "enough", which indicators actually tell you scarcity is arriving, and why DLI keeps the reserve level out of the score while showing it on the page.