Definition
A graph plotting bond yields across different maturities. The shape (normal, flat, inverted) signals market expectations about growth and policy.
A normal (upward-sloping) curve means longer-term rates are higher than short-term — typical in expansions. An inverted curve (short rates above long rates) has preceded every US recession since 1970. The 2-year vs 10-year spread is the most-watched segment. While not directly in our 11-indicator model, yield curve dynamics influence several components including real yields and HY spreads.